andrewjolson71 wrote:
While I don't totally disagree with Seth, there is more to try. Really, anywhere on the field, you can exploit defenses by doing a little scouting. Do they like to pack the box against Goalline offense? Take advantage of it. Do they spread out when you go single back? Take advantage of it.
I'm just saying statistically speaking passing plays stop working around the GL. IoT and I recently did a deep dive of it using our teams' data, and the results were ... interesting.
Let's just take the FL Hitch for an example. It is more likely to score when used between 5-10 YTG than it is 0-5 YTG. In our data, the HB Flare completed < 50% with 0-5 YTG, but > 80% at 5-10 YTG.
And you're right that some of this is game planning. Teams are going to run a number of blitzes to stop the run inside the 5 that are also going to disrupt some of the passing plays. But looking at the aggregate data, there are major drop offs in effective plays with 0-5 YTG.