jdavidbakr wrote:
Some of it has to do with frequency to be in a penalizing situation; for example, an offensive lineman has an opportunity to commit a penalty on every play - and in many cases, multiple opportunities. On the other hand, a WR running a route through a zone coverage will have very few opportunities to commit a penalty. Defenders will generally have most penalty opportunities if they are participating in a tackle, but someone like a deep safety will rarely have a penalty opportunity.
I've been thinking about the bolded statement, and I'm thoroughly annoyed by it. What this says to me is that game planners like WarEagle, Ray, Ares, myself, and many others are being penalized by penalties because we all develop game plans that are meant to control the tempo of the game. If Discipline really doesn't control penalties over the course of the game, and what really matters is the number of opportunities for a penalty to occur, why should I create a game plan that is designed to run off 70-80 plays in the course of a game?
This explains why I see so many penalties on games where my offense is cruising too and so many penalties that happen 20, 30, 50 yards behind the play. Why are there so many aspects of this game that are counterintuitive for people that actual game plan?
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Let me explain this now that I have a minute. There is very little correlation between the number of plays that a team runs and the number of penalties that a team commits. This breaks a linear expectation where each play has an equal chance of a penalty being committed.
For instance, here are the top five teams in plays and top five teams in penalties committed in the NFL last season. The number in parentheses for penalties represents how well a team did at not committing penalties and the number in parenthese for plays represents the team's rank in overall plays run.
Top 5 Plays
New Orleans - 1105 plays, 107 penalties (16)
Arizona - 1086 plays, 104 penalties (14)
Philly - 1080 plays, 113 penalties (25)
Baltimore - 1079 plays, 125 penalties (29)
Houston - 1071 plays, 87 penalties (1)
Top 5 Penalties
Oakland - 1048 plays (11), 147 penalties
Jacksonville - 1052 plays (8), 129 penalties
LA Rams - 960 plays (31), 126 penalties
Miami Dolphins - 913 plays (32), 125 penalties
Baltimore Ravens - 1079 plays (5), 125 penalties
It's not surprising at all that Jacksonville and LA are near the top in terms of penalties committed. Both were terrible teams that played desperate for much of the year. Meanwhile, it's also not surprising that teams like New England were in the top 10 for both plays run (7) and fewest penalties (5)
That said, even though penalties seem to scale linearly by play in MFN (in MFN-1 the most penalized teams have a ratio of about 1 penalty per 12 plays), the ratio may be lower than the NFL, which is about 1:10.
In short, still annoyed that MFN seems to take an almost linear approach to penalties and think that things like IN and DI should matter more, but less annoyed that the quasi-linear nature of penalties in MFN seems to produce better ratios than the NFL.
Last edited at 8/21/2017 9:23 pm