Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs Washington Huskies in the Sun Bowl
Rutgers ends the season with a bang after navigating through a rough 1-3 patch in the season. Boasting a top notch defense that could carry them deep, QB Cash Cannon and the offense will be under the spotlight as they try to get back on track. Rutgers makes its first Bowl game appearance in history as it completes the first winning record regular season.
When you have a Heisman favorite QB and the number 2 rushing attack in football, good things happen. And that’s exactly the case for Washington. QB Jack London is having a historic season, and doing so with a championship level running game to compliment it. By not turning the ball over, they keep their defense in good spots, and that translates into wins. They defend their home turf as good as anyone, not dropping a single game this year, and beating 3 playoff teams in the process. However, in their only postseason appearance thus far, the Huskies dropped a home bowl game to eventual runner up Army.
Key Stats:
Rutgers is 1-5 this year against playoff teams, with Navy being the only win, and 9-1 against non-playoff teams, with Army being the only loss. Washington is 3-1 against playoff teams, with its only loss against Notre Dame, and 10-2 against non-playoff teams, losing to USC and Ole Miss.
Rutgers has a respectable 5-3 Road record this season, but not close to the perfect 8-0 home record of the Huskies.
Rutgers’ top 10 defense matches up against the Huskies top 10 offense well, but the matchup between a middle of the pack Rutgers offense against a top 5 Huskies defense is a big mismatch on paper.
Positional Breakdown: Who has the edge in each positional group?
QB: Cannon has played respectably in year 2, but there’s only one QB out there that can matchup with London this season, and he’s a 2 time champ. Edge: Washington
HB: The duo of Pino and Dynamite have been relatively steady for the Scarlet Knights this season, but Gaskin has been the 2nd leading rusher this year. Oh, and the leading rusher plays for the two time Champ. Edge: Washington
WR/TE: Finally, something that Rutgers doesn’t get blown out of the water by. This one is really close, and an argument can be made for either. I’ll take the easy way out by saying this: Rutgers has a slight edge in go-to receivers making big plays with three 1000-yard receivers, but Washington has the bigger receiving depth with Tight ends and Running backs getting involved. Edge: Even
OL: Protection and running lanes define the offensive line, and Washington has done a better job in both. Easy call here. Edge: Washington
DL: The Pride of the Scarlet Knights. The starting defensive line combined for a whopping 66 sacks this season, which becomes more impressive when you realize that one of the defensive tackles had 0. Washington is middle of the pack when it comes to generating pass rush, but it does have stud rusher Entmen with 21 sacks. Rutgers lives by the pressure that sack leader and Heisman finalist candidate Kennedy and friends create, and to win this game, sacks are an absolute must (Rutgers had 6 sacks last time against Washington last year and a similar performance is needed). Edge: Rutgers
LB: Similar to the receivers, in terms of both groups having an edge in different areas. Rutgers has LBs who bring more pressure, but Washington has better coverage LBs. Tough to differentiate here, so again, let’s take the easy way out. Edge: Even
DB: Wow it cannot get any closer than this. The numbers are near identical, with the exception of Free Safety coverage (Rutgers wins that one). In a very close call, I’ll give Rutgers the edge (Bias maybe?) thanks to that FS edge and better coverage from its nickel and dime backs. Basically even, but let’s just make RU fans happy. Edge: Rutgers
Special Teams: Raymond Carlton, who typically receives a lot of heat from RU fans, has quietly nailed 28 field goals in a row (even I’m stunned after I just saw that stat), an impressive turnaround from his dreadful 7/14 start. He has had a slightly better year than Washington kicker Mata, but Mata has the bigger leg. Punting has also been close, but Washington punter Baker has the better Net punt yards. Kick returning is close with both return specialists picking up 1 return each on the season, and RU returner Northcutt having a slight edge in average return yards. Punt returning hasn’t seen fireworks, but Washington has better returns with RU focusing on not muffing punts, an issue in years past but no more. Simply put, special tams could swing the game either way, but no one really has a clear edge. Give RU the edge in kick related activity with a scalding hot kicker and lightly better returner, and give the edge to Washington in punt related activity with the better punter and returner. Kick Edge: Rutgers; Punts Edge: Washington
Rutgers wins this game if:
The RU defensive line wins the battle against a stout Washington offensive line and generates pressures and hopefully at least 4 sacks.
Cannon avoids stupid interceptions and can handle a pass rush by throwing it away if need be.
The RU front seven contains Gaskin to under 90 yards, leaving the secondary to matchup against London.
Washington wins this game if:
It causes Cannon to have one those dreadful starts and potentially force an interception early in a raucous home crowd.
London gets some time to get throws off, and he utilizes the TEs and RBs well in the passing game like they have been all year.
Washington weathers a potential storm by RU, and slowly and steadily wears down the RU defense with Gaskin.
Game prediction: I won’t do a score, but with a 2 point spread, I expect (and hope) it’s a close game. The RU defense has done a great job all year in giving Cannon a shot to tie and win games late in the fourth quarter, so I have a weird feeling it’s gonna come down to one team stopping the other deep in their own territory on downs to seal a win. Weather shouldn’t be a factor as temperatures are predicted to be in the low 40’s (not bad at all for Seattle in the end of December), but rain is a mystery for now (according to Dark Sky). I’ll make my prediction this: If this game ends up a defensive game with no team scoring more than 21, I think the Scarlet Knights will pull that kind of game out. If it becomes a shootout, I’m afraid Washington will have that edge. Should be a good one, and good luck to all the bowl teams!
