As many people have pointed out, passing offense in 4.6 is not good. You can game plan around, but the options are limited and game planning each game can be frustrating for a lot of players.

I have been tracking data for all teams in the Big Data league. For full disclosure, we're in the first season, but I think the first season of a league is better at highlighting problems with the game because you don't have a lot of all 100 players that mask issues.

Looking at the data for the first 8 games, there are two things that could be fixed right now that would greatly improve passing: sack rates and drop rates.

Here are the sack percentages broken down by Formation and Pass Distance. I have highlighted outliers, which are mostly long passes:



Potential hot fix here: Remove the penalty for OL blocking on medium and long passes. The speed changes made these penalties unnecessary.

Here are the drop percentages on passing play by Formation and Pass Distance. The important thing here is noticing that there is no real difference between the drops of short passes and the drops of medium and long passes:



Potential hot fix: Lower the drop chance by at least half, if not more. For reference, there were only 8 players in the NFL last season with a drop percentage >10%: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/receiving_advanced.htm

I think it would be a good idea to make JDB aware of this post or directly PM him with the info Setherick.

It's pretty well known he rarely if ever reads these forums (or league forums). It may or may not make any difference but it's good information for him to have.

I already did.

My biggest concern with the drops is the guys with great catching are dropping the most while guys with under 50 catching aren't dropping as much. If someone with 25 catching drops 3/4 of their passes I'm fine with that, if someone with 100 catching drops a quarter of their passes I got a problem with that.

Right, like I expect my team to drop a lot of passes and I accept that. But the leaguewide drops are out of control

Less drops may not lead to a big increase in catches.

It may lead to some extra phrases being introduced. The 'uncatchable' ball, 'overthrown', 'underthrown', 'thrown away' depending on what the game engine currently sees as a drop.

What would you expect to be considered a drop? 'fingertips', 'through his hands', 'got a hand to it, but couldn't hold on', 'bounced off his pads'. If a defender gets his arm or back/helmet in the way and stops the catch - is that a drop? or a 'contested ball'. Did hitting the turf on a diving/aerial catch count as a drop?

High skill receivers should be able to make the occasional 'how did he do that' 'one handed grab', 'diving catch', 'shoestring catch' to showcase his high marks in pass catching ability.

Without knowing what the catch looks like we cannot make a judgement on how good a players pass catching really is or how accurate the QB's throw is. It may look to be straight at the receiver but is it low, high, wide of the mark.

Also is it down to the receivers route-running ability. Does his speed/acceleration or lack of it match up with the arm strength of the QB. If you have a QB with low arm strength should he be better at completing hook routes where the receiver comes back towards him, whilst those with a cannon for an arm should be better at go routes?

How does the game define 'chemistry'/'synergy' between two players. Brady/Gronk, Burrow/Chase, Wilson/Lockett, Mahomes/Kelce or the lack of it between two talented players Mayfield/OBJ

Should 'Intentional grounding' be added as a penalty?


We have a limited view of the game, which can be increased/improved with better play by play analysis. I don't pay too much heed to a 'drop' right now because I don't think it's defined clearly. At present I think the game has catch, drop, knockdown, thrown away, interception and incomplete as it's options but no real explanation as to how or why they occured.

It would be good to see 'bobbles' introduced into the mix, with a percentage based on pass catching ability and pass accuracy from the QB as to whether the completion is made.

'He got his hands to it but the defender batted it away' would help to highlight those defenders with superior skills in pass coverage.

'He shied away from that because he see the impact coming' = low pass rec coverage Vs high punish receiver.

'He never had that ball in possession' = low pass catching Vs high coverage or high punish receiver.

'he jarred it loose' , 'the ground knocked it loose', 'he punched it out, before he got his feet down' all conjure up great images in your head and tell you a great deal more about the play. But as I understand it, in the past people wanted less descriptive text.

Nothing above addresses drops. Drop by definition is a ball that should otherwise be caught. This isn't a matter of adding more game concepts to the play by play text. It's fixing the percentage of ***** that hit a receivers hands that are not caught. And in the process starting to address the low YPA and lack of receiver production.

It's story telling and an energy ball of rationalization to depict what is otherwise bulls*** game play. :)

(@Setherick and Smirt) That's true too.

I'm not disagreeing that there should be more catches made (in particular on medium and long passes). I'd just like a better idea of why he does or doesn't make the catch.

I can agree to that. I liked your post from a making it a better game visualization wise with more depth.