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Re: 4.6 Passing Issues by the Data

By TheAdmiral
12/04/2021 2:18 pm
setherick wrote:
TheAdmiral wrote:


Run the data and see?


I forgot that past me already did this. Here's three season of League of Legends data that I created when testing a script to automate updating my database: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1U7EVGkVfQVkOh8KB-k80wcdi1e1dSnLo/view

Let's play find the viable long passes.



9 plays with a completion % between 50 and 58.33% is higher than I'd expect.

2710 attempts, 1196 completions @ 44.13% isn't too far from what I'd expect either


Looking at it, interceptions look very low (111 total) but the big anomaly is the lack of TD's (22 total)

Re: 4.6 Passing Issues by the Data

By Mcbolt55
12/04/2021 2:29 pm
That’s insanely low, but given as setherick points out the actual completions go to the dump off and not downfield for a breakaway

Re: 4.6 Passing Issues by the Data

By setherick
12/04/2021 3:32 pm
TheAdmiral wrote:
setherick wrote:
TheAdmiral wrote:


Run the data and see?


I forgot that past me already did this. Here's three season of League of Legends data that I created when testing a script to automate updating my database: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1U7EVGkVfQVkOh8KB-k80wcdi1e1dSnLo/view

Let's play find the viable long passes.



9 plays with a completion % between 50 and 58.33% is higher than I'd expect.

2710 attempts, 1196 completions @ 44.13% isn't too far from what I'd expect either


Looking at it, interceptions look very low (111 total) but the big anomaly is the lack of TD's (22 total)


Learn your stats bro. I'm talking viable plays.

Total dropbacks: 4011
Total pass attempts: 2710
Total sacks: 1301
Total Pressures: 900

Total Clean % = (Attempts - Pressure) / (Attempts + Sacks): 45.1
Sack % = Sacks / (Attempts + Sacks): 32.4
Pressure/Attempt % = Pressure / Attempt: 33.3

That means that fewer than 50% of the drop backs will be clean, and 32% of the plays are going to end in a sack. Of the plays where the QB doesn't get sacked, 33% of them are under pressure before the attempt.

The plays that complete >50% are those that go primarily to the FB, and those plays are extremely reduced in effectiveness from 4.5.

So, again, how are any of those plays viable?

The point about lack of TDs is a good point though. TDs are basically clustered around a few passing plays. Most passing plays will never produce a TD. But the reason that there are so few TDs on long passing plays is because WRs drop most of the long passes.
Last edited at 12/05/2021 1:23 am

Re: 4.6 Passing Issues by the Data

By TheAdmiral
12/04/2021 6:09 pm
As everyone (including me) has said all through this process, medium and deep passing needs to be improved.

All I've done here is say that asking for drops to be reduced isn't necessarily going to lead to am improved catch %. A 'drop' is just a way of describing an incomplete pass.

My point is pass completion% needs to improve. Drops are irrelevant in the grand scheme. The point of throwing the deep ball is the risk/reward of doing so. At the moment there's not enough reward to justify trying.

I get why JDB is reluctant to open up passing but at some point he will have too. He won't want the game to go back to the turnstile TD game you all crave, where speed is all that matters. However, if rewards are improved (as we all agree they should be) then the risk of an interception has to be increased too.

Re: 4.6 Passing Issues by the Data

By Infinity on Trial
12/04/2021 8:09 pm
TheAdmiral wrote:
As everyone (including me) has said all through this process, medium and deep passing needs to be improved.


You also make things up to support inaccurate arguments, while constantly suggesting that everything works great for those who are just willing to try harder.

TheAdmiral wrote:
All I've done here is say that asking for drops to be reduced isn't necessarily going to lead to am improved catch %. A 'drop' is just a way of describing an incomplete pass.


This is not true. A "drop" is a "drop," based on outdated coding that was designed to nerf explosive passing attacks.

TheAdmiral wrote:
My point is pass completion% needs to improve. Drops are irrelevant in the grand scheme.


Completion percentage needs to improve? No ****. Some of us were making this point before 4.6 launched, when you were singing a very different tune.

Guess what: If some of the drops are caught, the completion percentage will go up. It is frankly stupid in this context to say drops are irrelevant.

TheAdmiral wrote:
The point of throwing the deep ball is the risk/reward of doing so. At the moment there's not enough reward to justify trying.


What do you think this thread is about? I will once again refer you to the first post: Reduce drops and sacks, and the risk/reward balance will improve. At the moment, there is no reward, and severe risk.

TheAdmiral wrote:
He won't want the game to go back to the turnstile TD game you all crave, where speed is all that matters.


You know what I crave? For you to stop spewing this bullshit.

Nobody wants Madden arcade stats, nobody wants speed to be the only thing that matters, and nobody is asking for those things. It is ironic that when somebody points out how wrong you are, your instinct is to assume they must be intellectually inferior.

Re: 4.6 Passing Issues by the Data

By Mcbolt55
12/04/2021 8:16 pm
Not sure interceptions need to go up, it’s hard enough to get more tds than picks in the first place. Setherick brought up how safeties fail to play the deep zone, and we all know only the man coverage defenses are effective (if too effective). Those swing passes and quick out/hitches should become pick sixes when competent coverage or short flat zone defenders read the play. But by the same token it should be risky to play the defense that tight because a down field throw would stretch beyond the coverage, and that’s the threat that is missing now.

I know this is all just wishful thinking, but the lack of over half the playbook working properly is directly related to how zone defense fails and qb read progression combined with blocking and pass dropping penalties. In other words the things we hate about passing in 4.6 should be changed, but in conjunction with zone defenses designed to actually stop said passes, not these other “artificial” handicaps in the code.

Re: 4.6 Passing Issues by the Data

By Smirt211
12/05/2021 3:36 am
I think JDB is so far into the weeds with zone defense...I'm not sure what you're looking to achieve.

I'm not talking about how it plays visually but remember that the game mechanics and how when you face AI as an opponent it's now 90% zone defense based because your offense goes negative in familiarity each time you face a zone defensive play. Over time you can see how AI went from reducing red bar plays really shoving them down to where basically when you face AI the top 7 plays will be zone defense because it's meant to hold you down and keep you contained.

...he'd have to remove the artificial handicaps (that -% familiarity) and start over. Oh, and allow the ability to get red bars on them.
Last edited at 12/05/2021 3:40 am

Re: 4.6 Passing Issues by the Data

By CrazyRazor
12/05/2021 4:17 am
TheAdmiral wrote:


A 'drop' is just a way of describing an incomplete pass.


A THOUSAND TIMES, NO! A drop is an incompletion, but an incompletion is not simply a drop.

A drop is a ball that is catchable by the WR, but is not caught.

An incompletion can be an underthrow, an overthrow, a ball thrown away (out of bounds or out of the endzone), intentional grounding, a deflected ball.....Do you get my point yet?

We are talking about the drop rate!

We are not talking about incompletions in general!

If you fix the drop rate, incompletions in general will automatically be reduced! WHY? BECAUSE DROPS ARE INCOMPLETIONS, but not INCOMPLETIONS IN GENERAL!
Last edited at 12/05/2021 4:23 am

Re: 4.6 Passing Issues by the Data

By TheAdmiral
12/05/2021 6:07 am
CrazyRazor wrote:
TheAdmiral wrote:


A 'drop' is just a way of describing an incomplete pass.


A THOUSAND TIMES, NO! A drop is an incompletion, but an incompletion is not simply a drop.

A drop is a ball that is catchable by the WR, but is not caught.

An incompletion can be an underthrow, an overthrow, a ball thrown away (out of bounds or out of the endzone), intentional grounding, a deflected ball.....Do you get my point yet?

We are talking about the drop rate!

We are not talking about incompletions in general!

If you fix the drop rate, incompletions in general will automatically be reduced! WHY? BECAUSE DROPS ARE INCOMPLETIONS, but not INCOMPLETIONS IN GENERAL!


That's what I said - a drop is an incomplete pass

An incomplete pass is not necessarily a drop

So completions need to be improved



What is it you aren't understanding?

Re: 4.6 Passing Issues by the Data

By CrazyRazor
12/05/2021 6:18 am
TheAdmiral wrote:
CrazyRazor wrote:
TheAdmiral wrote:


A 'drop' is just a way of describing an incomplete pass.


A THOUSAND TIMES, NO! A drop is an incompletion, but an incompletion is not simply a drop.

A drop is a ball that is catchable by the WR, but is not caught.

An incompletion can be an underthrow, an overthrow, a ball thrown away (out of bounds or out of the endzone), intentional grounding, a deflected ball.....Do you get my point yet?

We are talking about the drop rate!

We are not talking about incompletions in general!

If you fix the drop rate, incompletions in general will automatically be reduced! WHY? BECAUSE DROPS ARE INCOMPLETIONS, but not INCOMPLETIONS IN GENERAL!


That's what I said - a drop is an incomplete pass

An incomplete pass is not necessarily a drop

So completions need to be improved



What is it you aren't understanding?


NO. The drop rate needs to be fixed! JDB increased the likelihood of DROPS in a previous version.

It has NOTHING to do with improving completions! There is a difference when it comes to programming.

What are you not understanding?