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Re: 4.6 Passing Issues by the Data

By TheAdmiral
11/29/2021 7:52 am
Smirt211 wrote:
I can agree to that. I liked your post from a making it a better game visualization wise with more depth.



It should also help to see the effectiveness of defenders in contested ball scenarios. Are Receivers with high pass catching dropping the ball due to the defenders punish receiver attribute, strip ball because they have low pass receiving courage.

The big issue with drops is the 'wide open', 'open field' drop. That play where you see it executed perfectly the receiver is in space and just drops it. Yes, that can happen but let us know why 'he's overthrown him, he'll want that one back', 'he never quite got under that one' 'he got loose there but that's a ball he has to catch', 'he never got turned around on that pass - it's just hit him on the back', 'he took his eye off that one', 'the timing was just off on that throw' all explain why the ball was dropped and help you to make a decision on how best to utilise each player or bin them completely ie a burner with straight line speed, an elusive sort who can pick through traffic, a strong armed possession guy, a combo of the former or a waste of space.

Last edited at 11/29/2021 7:53 am

Re: 4.6 Passing Issues by the Data

By Smirt211
11/29/2021 8:04 am
I factor all that in when I do my product placements/over-rides. I'm very meticulous with those thoughts running in my head as I slot them into place.

93-95 speed WR with low route but pinned 100 on catching with high courage and avoid I'll straight line 'em.

Low speed receivers with pinned 100 attributes everywhere else I'll throw 'em into 'dork' routes. Go nowhere routes with a lot of bends, twists and turns.

I just went all-out for a receiver/runner in FA whom has low avoid but pinned on everything else thus I noted to mash him on RB outlet passes.

I factor all that in as I prepare for a season and figure the attributes all matter like bible/the gospel.

Re: 4.6 Passing Issues by the Data

By raymattison21
11/29/2021 1:43 pm
My drops were tied to accuracy. I have vets who have low catch but fine target to catch ratios .
Those low accuracy QBs have really high drops no matter the wr ratings . At one time Jdb did have diving catches , the qb threw behind, or the wr had to slow down ..... all to indicate who was at fault. But I think it got cluttered but the point was to see why it went incomplete.

Re: 4.6 Passing Issues by the Data

By Infinity on Trial
11/29/2021 4:02 pm
raymattison21 wrote:
My drops were tied to accuracy. I have vets who have low catch but fine target to catch ratios .
Those low accuracy QBs have really high drops no matter the wr ratings .


A quick scan of Big Data shows no evidence to support this claim. Seattle's QB has 100 accuracy, and Seattle's TE is among league leaders with 8 drops vs 56 catches.

My 87 accuracy QB has 188 completions vs 22 drops by my receivers (10.5% drops)

smirt's QB has 84 accuracy, and his team has 24 drops vs 249 completions (8.8% drops)
Last edited at 11/29/2021 4:06 pm

Re: 4.6 Passing Issues by the Data

By raymattison21
11/29/2021 4:29 pm
Idk how good some of these guys are but my team has 54 accuracy and lower combined for 17% drops per PAss attempts . This was in beast mode league. Both are young ....I wonder my drop rates in older leagues are but I have 100s a lot more there. And all my QBs have near if not 100 accuracy . Does strength do anything to prevent drops?

Re: 4.6 Passing Issues by the Data

By setherick
11/29/2021 8:25 pm
raymattison21 wrote:
My drops were tied to accuracy. I have vets who have low catch but fine target to catch ratios .
Those low accuracy QBs have really high drops no matter the wr ratings . At one time Jdb did have diving catches , the qb threw behind, or the wr had to slow down ..... all to indicate who was at fault. But I think it got cluttered but the point was to see why it went incomplete.


This is statistically untrue. Tell me in the data where you see this because I don't. It looks completely random for QBs with > 50 pass attempts:



Not sure why Rypien's Accuracy isn't showing up, but it's 66.

UPDATE: Reordered the screenshot by drop % and added Arm Strength just as a comparison.
Last edited at 11/29/2021 10:35 pm

Re: 4.6 Passing Issues by the Data

By Mcbolt55
11/29/2021 8:39 pm
It would be a little easier to see a correlation if the columns were sorted by drop percentage or qb accuracy.

Also, I’m no statistics expert and not involved in this league, but how much of the drop percentage is related to the wr skills as opposed to the qb? Or the play call? I know long passes get sacked more because pass protection gets adjusted on those plays, wasn’t there a similar “nerf” applied to dropping deep routes?

Re: 4.6 Passing Issues by the Data

By setherick
11/29/2021 8:46 pm
Mcbolt55 wrote:
It would be a little easier to see a correlation if the columns were sorted by drop percentage or qb accuracy.

Also, I’m no statistics expert and not involved in this league, but how much of the drop percentage is related to the wr skills as opposed to the qb? Or the play call? I know long passes get sacked more because pass protection gets adjusted on those plays, wasn’t there a similar “nerf” applied to dropping deep routes?


Pulling receiver attributes next.

Re: 4.6 Passing Issues by the Data

By setherick
11/29/2021 11:20 pm
Drops by the WR catching attribute, which ostensibly controls whether or not the receiver catches or drops the ball, are also equally random.

Here are all of the players that lined up at one of the receiver positions with 25 or more targets and a drop percentage > 9% through 8 games:



Here are bins rounded to the nearest 10 on catching skill for any player that lined up as a TE or a WR (so if the position says RB that player was lined up as a WR or TE). This does a really good job of showing that in the aggregate the pass catching skill doesn't matter:



Last edited at 11/29/2021 11:21 pm

Re: 4.6 Passing Issues by the Data

By setherick
11/29/2021 11:22 pm
As fun as this has been, sacks are the bigger and more important issue to solve.